Travel and tourism: How will it recover post lockdown : Grasshopper

Team Grasshopper 14-05-2020 01:28 PM News

Governments around the globe have put a number of restrictions on both domestic and international travel, locking billions within their home. These restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 have brought travel and tourism industry to a complete standstill. From small scale business to the MNCs, all have been affected by the sudden halt. TUI, that is the biggest tour operator of today’s time, has said that it could shed up to 8000 jobs. Airlines like Lufthansa are seeking support of the government to survive.

According to WTTC (World Travel and Tourism Council), an industry group, tourism accounts up to 10% of the global GDP and one in ten jobs. The council also estimated that over a third of these jobs or 100 million positions, and $2.7 trillion in GDP could be at risk due to the current crisis.

Countries whose GDP majorly depends on the tourism industry will be the worst hit. Among small and developing island states, even 25% decrease in tourism could cut off up to 7% of GDP. This could go down to up to 16% in places like Maldives and Seychelles, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Airports can play an important role

Airports though can give the travel industry a ray of hope by adapting to new precautionary rules for travellers but this seems a bit tough as airlines are reducing the fleets and slashing jobs of thousands. British Airways said that it does not expect passenger demand to return to the 2019 levels before 2023.

Airports and hotels are trying to lure travellers back with health checks and enhanced cleaning protocols, all of which will add layers of cost at a time when the sector's finance are already low.

Even if the security measures are taken as instructed by WTTC, but international tourist arrivals are predicted to be rare. The UNWTO estimates 80% decline in international tourists compared to 2019.

"This is by far the worst crisis that international tourism has faced since records began" the UN body said in a statement last week. "The impact will be felt to varying degrees in the different global regions and at overlapping times, with Asia and the Pacific expected to rebound first."

Domestic travel could be a saviour

Early signs are already pointing at the fact that domestic tourism might come back to normal soon after the travel restrictions are lifted. As it has already been seen in China after the restrictions were lifted in March. More than 30% of domestic airline capacity returned since March. According to an aviation analytics company, Cerium, the consumers’ confidence has yet not been restored as the number of cancellations has increased.

Airbnb also noticed a surge in domestic booking in Denmark and Netherlands.

A number of countries are depending on the domestic tourism to bring back their tourism sector to normal. This list includes countries like the U.S., Japan and India, where, according to UNWTO domestic tourism makes up to 80% of the total travel and tourism spending.

No hopes yet for international tourism

All the small scale industries and countries that depend highly on international tourists will face an uncertain future. Bringing back the confidence of the tourists will take a little longer even after the vaccine against the COVID-19 is found.